A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
