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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still