Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
